An ISU Political Scientist rates the chances of Democratic Congressional candidate David Gill to overturn the apparent result in favor of Taylorville Republican Rodney Davis as poor to mixed. Gill is behind by some 1200 votes in the 13th district, but is holding out hope provisional ballots will change the outcome. Politics and Government Professor Lane Crothers says it is unlikely provisional ballots would break that sharply for Gill...
"What you have to imagine even if it's two to one, that for every two Gill ballots there is a Davis ballot, That's a lot of votes to make up when every time you take two steps the person who is already ahead takes another one. It's a long path."
In general, Crothers says provisional ballots reflect the rest of the race. In this case that's nearly an even split. Gill could also ask a judge to order a discovery recount. Crothers says those are expensive, and there must be some evidence of a flaw in the electoral process.
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