The Donald Trump presidential campaign was full of bold promises. Two Illinois State University political scientists said his supporters will hold him accountable if those promises are not met by the mid-term elections in two years or the next presidential race in four years. Erik Rankin and Tom McClure regular political analysts for Sound Ideas.
"Traditionally, the President loses members of Congress during the off-term election," said McClure. "I would expect the same here." McClure expects a loss even with state redistricting of congressional districts to favor Republicans.
Rankin thinks it could be a difficult battle to regain control of congress. He said the Democrats will have to defend more Senate seats than the GOP in 2018 and the "House is pretty far out of reach for Democrats."
Trump promised to return manufacturing jobs to the rust belt. Erik Rankin answered with an emphatic "no" when asked if he could return those jobs.
"We have moved on and moved past that. The world has moved past that. That's the effect of globalization," said Rankin. "That's a bold promise that those individuals in the rust belt areas, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, they're going to hold him to this."
Tom McClure doesn't think altering trade deals will affect the return of jobs.
"I think this is a challenge for Trump. It will be like his Guantanamo Bay promise that Obama made," said McClure. "It's a great promise if you can get people to go with you on it. But here we are eight years later, it hasn't happened. I see the same thing as this (jobs)."
President Obama pledged in 2008 to close the Guantanamo Bay detention facility on a U.S. base in Cuba. Obama tried again in 2016, that would have moved some terror detainees to U.S. federal prisons. Efforts to close the facility stalled due to congressional opposition.
Rankin and McClure think Trump's promises regarding immigration, deportations, and a physical wall separating Mexico and the U.S. are just as problematic as his pledges regarding jobs. They agree his supporters are expecting an actual wall. Rankin said GOP fiscal hawks will stop that plan based on cost.