On July 15, a faction within the Turkish Armed Forces failed in its attempt to overthrow the government. On the day of the coup, Illinois State University Professor of Comparative Politics Dr. Yusuf Sarfati landed in Istanbul to begin a one-year sabbatical. Talking with WGLT's Jon Norton via Skype, Sarfati said despite the tension between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and various opposition groups, he had no inkling a coup was imminent.
"Neither me or anyone who was watching Turkey closely imagined a coup or at least a coup attempt could have happened right now" said Sarfati. "Turkey has been unstable for the past year, however not in anyone's wildest imagination was that expected." Everyone was shocked."
Early on, there was speculation that Erdoğan himself staged the coup in order consolidate power. Sarfati dismisses that theory as not credible, saying if it had been a "fake coup" it would not have affected so many people and would not have been so bloody.
Sarfati said "And right now a third of the generals have been arrested and 240 people were killed that night. We saw the footage. Soldiers did fire live ammunition against civilians who threw themselves in front of the tanks."
Erdoğan himself suspected exiled cleric Fethullah Gülen as the mastermind behind the coup. Gülen is the founder of what's known as the Gülen movement, which believes in a more open and liberal version of Islam. Gülen and Erdoğan were allies until Erdoğan suspected Gülen of masterminding the 2013 corruption investigations in Turkey. Almost immediately after the attempted coup, Erdoğan purged the military, bureaucracy and universities of Gülen followers. Sarfati dismissed the idea that Erdoğan knew of the coup but chose to keep it quiet in order to be able to purge Gülenists so quickly from public institutions is not credible.
"The two have been at odds since 2013, and also since then, many Gülenists have been purged" said Sarfati. "Many media related to Gülen has been shut down or confiscated by the state. After the coup, these moves really accelerated in an unprecedented way. The numbers we're talking about are huge. And all of the Universities related to Gülen are being shut down. Many journalists are being retained. It's not a secret who is affiliated with the Gülen movement."
Military coups in Turkey are not uncommon. There have been four successful coups have occurred since 1960 for a number of reasons, but Sarfati said those coups essentially had the backing of the people, unlike the attempt July 15.
Sarfati also said "And it was not a coup orchestrated by the chief of staff of the military. The chief of staff was kidnapped, and many higher levels of command did not agree to the coup. So we are talking about a military that was divided. We still don't know much of what happened that night. Many experts who are watching this closely said it was some kind of alliance between different factions within the military that engaged in the coup."
Sarfati speculates that plotters of the coup were tipped off that a purge was coming, and made the decision to move forward despite being unorganized. He said the rushed nature of the coup forced the plotters to initiate the attack at the relatively early hour of 10:00 pm on a Friday, when many Turks were already outdoors. When forces failed to capture Erdoğan, it allowed the President to use social media to rally people to fight the coup. Thousands filled the streets of Ankara and Istanbul in a show of support for democracy, if not for Erdoğan himself. Sarfati said because the plotters lacked popular support, a successful coup could have plunged Turkey into a civil war similar to the one in bordering Syria.
"Right now we're living with the consequences of the coup, and things could get pretty bad" said Sarfati. "But if the coup had succeeded, we would be talking about much graver consequences."
